Let's talk about scoring in play. Remember the core features that get you points:
- 15's
- Pairs
- Runs
Plus some unique features in play.
- Go
- 31
What to lead
Somewhere I read some advice that makes beautiful sense.
Never lead with something that lets the other player get a 15.
What does this mean?
Anything from 5 to K has an immediate response that brings the total to 15, and lets them peg 2 points.
| Lead | Response |
|---|---|
| 5 | X, J, Q, K |
| 6 | 9 |
| 7 | 8 |
| 8 | 7 |
| 9 | 6 |
| X, J, Q, K | 5 |
As Pone, you need to have A, 2, 3, or 4 in your hand.
Or, you risk giving Dealer 2 points right away.
What are they holding?
They're only holding four cards. After you've seen one of the four, can you really guess at the other 3 cards?
Maybe.
There seem to be two kinds of scoring patterns players hope for:
- Mid-ranked runs. Cards from 5-9.
- High + Low. Cards from A to 5 and one or more ⨉ (X, J, Q, K).
Was the first card high? Maybe the others are a mixture of high and low. Was the first card in the middle? Maybe the others are adjacent in the middle.
You can't really know. But. You know their cards are not completely random. They tried to keep pairs, or 15's, or runs.
If they play a 7, maybe it's good to assume they're also holding an 8. I don't have a lot of confidence in making these kinds of predictions, but maybe it works.
I see cards that are often garbage, invalidating any prediction possibilities. I ask if my old Magic: The Gathering cards got mixed into the deck. Can I use a pair of "Force of Nature" to wreck your crib? Or, I'll ask if this Uno Reverse card can be used to change the order of play.
Pouncing on the Pair
I pounce on pairs.
My partner calls this a weakness.
But -- I ask -- what are the odds of them having played the only card of some rank, vs. what are the odds of them having yet another of the same rank?
How to decide?
- Path 1. Probability analysis. Not easy. The odds of cutting to same rank cards from a shuffled deck of 52 cards is easy. The odds of dealing two same-rank cards into separate hands of 6 cards is above my pay grade.
- Path 2. Simulation. I got this. Mostly. I do know Python.
I'll avoid the code, but it involves simulating 20,000 pairs of 4-card hands. If the two hands have overlapping ranks, then, the pattern of cards with of the matching rank gave me a possible sequence of plays.
Net results:
| player pegs | probability | expected value |
|---|---|---|
| dealer 2 | 83.8% | 1.676 |
| pone 6 | 5.4% | 0.326 |
| dealer 12 | 0.2% | 0.019 |
Assuming Pone leads, Dealer can pounce on the pair when they have the right card. This happens surprisingly often: in 84% of hands. It nets out to 1.676 points in each hand for Dealer.
What if Pone leads, Dealer pounces, and Pone has yet another matching card? This happens a scant 5% of the time. One hand in 20. Pone gets 6 points for it. (Dealer got 2, which is included in the previous line.) Pone expects 0.326 points in each hand from this condition.
Finally, it's possible they both hold two cards of the same rank. And the number is $\leq 7$. Pone leads, Dealer gets the pair. Pone throws down for a pair royal, getting 6. Dealer drops the bomb, getting 12. This is 0.2% of play. You might see it once in 500 hands played. Dealer expects 0.019 points of each hand from this.
Actual experts may disagree with my analysis -- because I've done something wrong here -- and have a more thoughtful approach. For introductory purposes, this seems to cover the bases. Pouncing on a pair does have a risk of giving the other player 6 points. 1 time in 20. It gives the pouncer 2 points most of the time.
What to lead, again
Above, we said, lead with A-4. Always safe.
But. What if tou're holding a pair?
What to do?
-
Safe Bet. Save the pair (if you can) until the end. The count is near 31 or maybe there's been a "Go", and the other play is almost out of cards. You play one of your pair, they'll say "Go", and you get to play the other card of the pair. A safe two points.
-
Offer the Pair. I think it's better to lead with one of the pair (as long as it's not a 5, because you know they'll play a face card or a 10.) With luck, they pounce on the pair and get two points. You can get six points with a very small risk of giving them 12.